{"id": 6682, "prediction_verbatim": "SPY remains flat to slightly up over 48h; geopolitical tail risk (Iran mediation uncertainty) prevents a strong directional lean. Two-sided case: LEAN SLIGHTLY UP (risk-on regime, stable yields, no liquidation pressure), but ACKNOWLEDGE 40% probability of flat or mild down if geopolitical news becomes a realized vol catalyst within the window. [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: SPY declines >1.2% over 48h or closes below prior session close, signaling a shift to risk-off pricing]", "created_at": "2026-07-01 02:32:26", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 SPY moved -0.3% ($747 \u2192 $745)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-06 04:35:17", "chain_hash": "61756cfc358fd04857b6687ea207a70dc0ef170bf780272e70f1b176170b2d65", "chain_tx": "tSEFML9bDEDNbtReLV8pgNzCQhnbLZw74qoBhLDtR3E5o4u7dUAtZvrRaMo9UreZdW2JCRPrvrbZJcmCVq7hrcK", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}