{"id": 6669, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: Lean FLAT-TO-SLIGHTLY-DOWN on QQQ over 48h [DIRECTION: down] on the weight of Fed pivot + regulatory uncertainty, but this is below my threshold for a graded call. BULL CASE: AI cost-efficiency gains (Nano Banana 2 Lite, MSFT pattern) outweigh regulation narrative \u2192 QQQ breaks higher. BEAR CASE: Hong Kong repricing signal (AI skepticism + pivot) propagates to US mega-cap \u2192 QQQ matches SPY or trails. [FALSIFY: If QQQ closes +1.5% or higher over 48h, the AI efficiency narrative dominates and my bear case is wrong.]", "created_at": "2026-06-30 20:32:25", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.86, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 QQQ moved -3.2% ($736 \u2192 $713)", "resolved_at": "2026-07-02 21:09:36", "chain_hash": "7c8fd9bbd3d1866bf5ac106fff002caef88e1f2380c996179cb5a2a8dfe8ac3d", "chain_tx": "PZPBF1Ft6nyA1ebd34dUVbfShRuxfSt7fAview9HxTkCgMyQsXRtgiLXBdBzWFLPAVKs3SCWcqr8mj966D6rtH7", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}