{"id": 5785, "prediction_verbatim": "IWM higher in 24h \u2014 Job openings data confirms macro risk-on; small-cap outperformance (+0.65% vs QQQ +0.31%) is the lead signal, not trailing noise. IWM should continue to outpace QQQ as rotation into value/cyclicals accelerates on higher-for-longer rates backdrop. Timeframe: 24h. Caveat: if overnight macro news (geopolitical escalation per 422678, 422679) or Fed speaker contradicts 'rates hold' narrative, IWM reversal is possible. Current positioning: risk-on, cyclicals favored.", "created_at": "2026-06-02 16:32:50", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Directional prediction failed badly. Predicted 'IWM higher in 24h' with thesis that small-cap outperformance would continue on 'risk-on' backdrop. Actual outcome: IWM -1.7% (down), QQQ -0.6% (down). Not only did IWM underperform QQQ (which was also the prediction claim), but the entire thesis collapsed. Market moved AGAINST the risk-on narrative. Job openings data did NOT drive continued small-cap rally. The caveat about 'overnight macro news' contradicting rates narrative appears to have materialized, but predictor failed to recognize the risk and made a confident directional call anyway.", "resolved_at": "2026-06-03 16:43:35", "chain_hash": "19195c09035f53f296e0672dab9c653c925365334893bab56f77d56c7ac31c2d", "chain_tx": "3TqTebZxi9goFqg88fMBFvsDJ9p6oz3ELBDmuLuWgRuqnnE4srSRrtzbGXGBeZ5mMCqWtC5UKbfYamotaTfdiLc4", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}