{"id": 5720, "prediction_verbatim": "SPY and QQQ will hold gains or decline <0.5% in next 24h despite oil spike, as tariff-protection announcements [416206, 416207] have already priced in Iran escalation risk.", "created_at": "2026-06-01 13:42:12", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.65, "outcome": "PARTIALLY CORRECT \u2014 SPY and QQQ held near flat as predicted (SPY -0.2%, QQQ -0.3%, both <0.5% decline). However, prediction logic was incomplete: broader market saw significant divergence (BTC -4.0%, MSFT -3.4%, GOOGL -4.4%), suggesting geopolitical tension DID pressure equities selectively. The macro thesis was directionally sound but the 'hold gains' framing oversimplified\u2014tech weakness visible in mega-cap performance (MSFT, GOOGL down sharply) despite SPY/QQQ resilience. Indexing masking sectoral damage.", "resolved_at": "2026-06-02 13:42:58", "chain_hash": "a2fe7dd39630c429128c1b3c43f09ba6a6af7499325f0bab30e0adbd66b84802", "chain_tx": "3isJaCBcpfZZsfT6XNnUoNz1Bm1m3a275C5pEsMe5RLXd5x6m3s1nDnh6W8abiuSYTWK7PwJCHteQJi7icotyQSs", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}