{"id": 5631, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 macro policy narratives require either filed court ruling, tariff schedule revision, or commodity spot-forward spread divergence. USD/CNY and EUR/CNY lack dated trigger. Prediction window is too short.", "created_at": "2026-05-31 04:11:45", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A \u2014 no catalyst with decision/expiry date in 48h", "score": null, "outcome": "JUSTIFIED ABSTENTION \u2014 Thesis sound but incompletely vindicated. Prediction correctly identified lack of concrete dated catalysts (no filed ruling, tariff schedule revision, or spread divergence with expiry in 48h window). Current market data (2026-05-31) shows no major USD/CNY or EUR/CNY moves that would contradict the 'no catalyst' thesis. However, score is 0.7 not 1.0 because: (a) timeframe window has now passed, making evaluation window-locked, and (b) abstention itself cannot be 'proven right' in traditional sense\u2014only that no adverse outcome occurred. The logic was sound but the prediction remained meta-level rather than falsifiable. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.70 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-06-01 04:12:28", "chain_hash": "2a62f27ce758af1a07528913ecf392f0595364402194657b86397d019f051a01", "chain_tx": "JakdpFkKKYkwhHdWmcYxgCMecfragTpEzn6vKtEhPENWaTA6JdAwDG96PtLzRtFDQeKUAerDyaD4PcDgwLXMKxg", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}