{"id": 5626, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 US equities are closed; crypto macro regime (BTC/ETH) will track overnight Asia equities and China sentiment (which are not yet observed). Without real-time yield moves or intraday vol data, 24h directional call is unreliable.", "created_at": "2026-05-31 02:41:48", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "ABSTAIN was justified and appropriate. Prediction explicitly abstained due to market closure and lack of real-time data. Market context (HY spreads 2.72%, 10Y-2Y +0.47%) were stated accurately. BTC/ETH overnight movements tracked as predicted: BTC -0.3%, ETH -1.0% over 24h, consistent with modest downward drift on mixed Asia sentiment. The abstention itself was the correct call\u2014no false directional claim was made. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.70 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-06-01 03:42:22", "chain_hash": "c6eeb3f3d162e68b70990e58cd3406d9d156fd77c77adf5ba5000d22c38e6ed2", "chain_tx": "5mxZNFGeb27mPSnBs8w7yVZZJpJGg2TUxVik1Q45vwtPVWemDz3rwBeJ6apRTvbPPc959UwELVDRDMmfVMNavQFh", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}