{"id": 5465, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 observation window incomplete. No testable directional call on equities or macro aggregates can be scored without earnings revision timing data (next 14 days) cross-referenced against these margin signals. These are lagging indicators of demand destruction, not leading indicators of price direction. Predicting directionally would violate the gate on macro narrative without specific trigger dates.", "created_at": "2026-05-26 02:13:43", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 IWM moved +1.9% ($285 \u2192 $291) [annulled: abstention was graded 0.79 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-27 02:36:36", "chain_hash": "74b8ac97bae5b97b8bec9115632fdaffcf23f80735fd346bc908c993e96dd8d1", "chain_tx": "2zb8gWY6WoLqkHZBY4AfcAQDwQJnV7pVXkm1Ex4kWaNt98HtBJ532cFBsN1QYTWujB82UbceLjFPdarreFHSdbPP", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}