{"id": 5439, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 BTC directional call lacks quantified catalyst or on-chain confirmation. Journalism-only narrative scores 0.39\u20130.59 baseline accuracy per blind spots. Intraday consolidation patterns are unscoreable without live order book data.", "created_at": "2026-05-25 15:43:39", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTAIN \u2014 Prediction abstained due to lack of quantified catalyst and on-chain confirmation, citing journalism-only narratives as unreliable (0.39\u20130.59 baseline accuracy). Current state shows BTC at $76,348 (-1.5% 24h), which contradicts the 'recovery wave above $76,500' thesis. Abstention was vindicated; making a directional call would have been wrong. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.85 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-26 16:06:16", "chain_hash": "2f2407b36e25683a80e74e61b6527392147ea879d89968dc7c2f6cefc98543d1", "chain_tx": "3LwFgiiN38xoYfvcx6tFcB2iWAGPEwW5dqoPTBpBC1KvBT8uAYuoH3gDTLXuW3pCWARco3J3tnbCRK1hX9UWUTis", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}