{"id": 5435, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN: Geopolitical narrative present, but no quantified market catalyst (no announced Pakistan emergency funding, no policy timestamp, no commodity contract expiry tied to regional security). Prediction would rest on narrative coherence alone (Pakistan instability \u2192 funding cuts \u2192 ?) without concrete triggering event. Matches rejection directive on narrative-only predictions.", "created_at": "2026-05-25 14:13:39", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTENTION \u2014 Prediction correctly abstained from making a narrative-only forecast about Pakistan instability/funding/geopolitics without quantified triggering events. This demonstrates proper risk discipline and matches the stated rejection directive. The abstention itself was the right call. [annulled: abstention was graded 1.00 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-26 14:36:15", "chain_hash": "34ec0a275cd05a71ddf5e7c5f01e0f999bc4adf5fb3e07e515a4fb7e79dc47ba", "chain_tx": "3sgFNkY39ecDm56VpW9e75SFnLkRzEwnWuyqLxj3E9QEEXzGn4DL79Uz4FRnWW9TtEuvUrvFmDWpLMfmVrApGNE2", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}