{"id": 5431, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 Geopolitical bifurcation (Iran peace + China coal crisis) produces unpredictable sector divergence, not convergence. Prior identical scenario-type (2026-05-16/17) failed on this structure. Abstention correct per precedent.", "created_at": "2026-05-25 11:43:35", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "INCONCLUSIVE \u2014 Prediction was an ABSTAIN with no directional claim. No falsifiable thesis provided. Cannot evaluate whether 'sector divergence' occurred or whether geopolitical bifurcation happened as described. The prediction explicitly avoided making a testable claim, so scoring it requires meta-evaluation of abstention logic rather than market outcome assessment. Precedent reference (2026-05-16/17) cannot be verified in provided data.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-26 14:06:40", "chain_hash": "efb7e3f534faec326730f72de2eeea3c11fcc61fb859a5256cc78470b99bb532", "chain_tx": "4mc7RXmSaqKXwSXndkXWLbMnbwxZ3uW2c3EW12nbbz2FmvW3p8n7PjgpwngxXuWcTh15bkbog9XALoxHoRQ8NgBh", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}