{"id": 5413, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 Venezuela mining seizure is a local supply shock with negligible global hashrate impact (~0.1% of total). Lacks quantified catalyst (mining pool data, hash redistribution) to move BTC price. Macro rates signal (high yields, elevated FFR) dominate micro supply friction.", "created_at": "2026-05-25 01:29:52", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "MOSTLY RIGHT \u2014 Prediction abstained on BTC price impact from Venezuela mining seizure, arguing supply shock was negligible (~0.1% hashrate impact) relative to macro signals (FFR, yields). Current BTC: $76,570 (-0.6% 24h), showing minimal volatility. Macro thesis directionally correct: equities (SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.4%) and fixed-income environment (high yields) dominate micro supply friction. However, score reduced from 0.8 because abstention format prevents claiming strong predictive accuracy\u2014prediction avoided explicit directional call, making full validation impossible. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.70 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-26 01:44:12", "chain_hash": "89ec90593c257cb13908fb0b19a33d244f2bbdfdda4c16ab45ae2b4ea4aefe63", "chain_tx": "4HcYH9rvGhFJJ6ZoSzDVjX7Kp6wk5kkm3Vdy64u2vLVvub9Ltf9fs1BRwB2zfK6p8D4F1RJoj8uVhZAtynHZ7owf", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}