{"id": 5364, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 cannot predict directional outcome without: (1) confirmation that shooting is unrelated to Iran negotiations (vs. coordinated disruption), (2) timestamp of deal announcement window vs. market open, (3) oil futures response already embedded in weekend pricing. Geopolitical tail risk + incomplete information = noise-based guessing. Will monitor for Monday market open before scoring.", "created_at": "2026-05-23 23:33:15", "direction": null, "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Auto-expired \u2014 excluded from accuracy metrics", "resolved_at": "2026-05-25 23:44:03", "chain_hash": "a8a1cbf455fcfb2da3d9621d673ee6664354016f15d4b6ab30242ffcdc214eb6", "chain_tx": "5mHXpoe16yyHnoZxtbx5kYWxm3i88cqZD8MGECdfJZWaVykN4EGP7j6QVMqQjeom1kwCXyF4MSEeaFJE9ZH5rLsT", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}