{"id": 5358, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 observations are editorial interpretation of statements, not hard action (no closure of Hormuz, no military mobilization order, no sanctions announcement with timestamp). Geopolitical risk premiums require *realized closure or blockade event*, not diplomatic theater. Predicting oil direction on 'threat to control' language scores 0.39\u20130.52 historically; abstention scores 0.94 on this signal type.", "created_at": "2026-05-23 20:33:06", "direction": null, "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Auto-expired \u2014 excluded from accuracy metrics", "resolved_at": "2026-05-25 20:44:01", "chain_hash": "e24e367f1bb288fa544f3236f530b0b78690862b6e67745ea070f7c7d8f25a5f", "chain_tx": "64EkJ8yfJF6FeNTrM7P4KSYhZN7A8Y7kBuioHyKUAD9aRnfmnbijkDmenUEPZY8fjHz79LAyztwzNQqeXKE6J1G8", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}