{"id": 5343, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 narrative-only macro/security concerns without quantified operational catalysts or timeline specificity", "created_at": "2026-05-23 00:32:55", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A (abstention)", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTENTION \u2014 Prediction correctly abstained from making a specific directional call on Bitcoin due to lack of quantified operational catalysts or specific timeline. Current BTC price (+1.8% 24h at $76,767) shows modest volatility with no quantum computing event or specific catalyst materialized. The narrative-only concern about quantum threats remains unquantified and unscheduled, validating the abstention decision. This demonstrates disciplined risk management: refusing to predict on non-falsifiable macro narratives without operational triggers. [annulled: abstention was graded 1.00 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-24 01:03:34", "chain_hash": "57eab61dd4f70d3d95d0fc419f5133e895d3fefb121b3c1cfcb526f2e468177c", "chain_tx": "4eyLCzYvNV1y7svUdatbsESZDvfAk9WtiY4eZYw29fc2KDmEmSM5EphRhQEfAgmRKmFa81iRZ4YvjaAqheYy1i65", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}