{"id": 5339, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 geopolitical narrative clustering without quantified policy catalyst (executive order timestamp, tariff rate announcement, sanctions list) is inherently unfalsifiable and scores 0.39\u20130.59 historically. Wait for a *specific, timestamped policy action* (e.g., 'Trump announces 25% tariff on Chinese semiconductors effective 2026-05-24') before evaluating equity directional impact.", "created_at": "2026-05-22 20:02:56", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A \u2014 ABSTAIN", "score": null, "outcome": "Auto-expired \u2014 excluded from accuracy metrics", "resolved_at": "2026-05-24 08:29:59", "chain_hash": "6853f293d8ac521428aca13e1e3c0869cfb0d7920d3d58c1058683b23cc85a52", "chain_tx": "u4yJiaovVmi4vpnkLnPsAzRadeuEABicWvgZD9DVLozh43cuMhVijQw9PRte3nVNod1V7KcvvT3gCHuA4S2Zgoi", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}