{"id": 5322, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 bond yield directional claim on 48h horizon violates historical accuracy threshold (0.31\u20130.60) and lacks real-time macro shock timing.", "created_at": "2026-05-22 00:50:56", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "INCONCLUSIVE \u2014 Prediction was an ABSTAIN (no directional claim made). The prediction explicitly declined to make a bond yield call due to low historical accuracy and macro timing uncertainty. Since no falsifiable prediction was issued, the outcome cannot be scored as right or wrong. The abstention itself cannot be evaluated against market data. Current Treasury/macro data not provided in market state snapshot to validate the stated thesis conditions anyway.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-23 02:33:13", "chain_hash": "a30df984b6fece8ba9e409baa9c8eca2bbf75ec9b811094f30d2c83d7410bbab", "chain_tx": "3Sga9PAzvGRi5aBtBq2UV9bzih9sPQPxB9qypqPt5ayB2hibtiY1y3mSNAxGeSwVbyU6g2y4kd7X1shVfMtazDRQ", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}