{"id": 5301, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 no testable directional thesis; temporal clustering alone does not compress into equity moves without earnings surprise, guidance revision, or options flow confirmation. Historical false-positive rate too high.", "created_at": "2026-05-20 02:50:39", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "Correct ABSTAIN \u2014 No testable thesis was warranted. Insider clustering without earnings/guidance surprise or options flow confirmation is inherently unfalsifiable. Market moved +1.0% to +3.3% across mentioned names (MSTR, GOOGL, MSFT, ARM, SMCI, COIN, PLTR, MET) with no directional consensus. Abstaining was the right call. [annulled: abstention was graded 1.00 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-21 04:51:06", "chain_hash": "a1e69dc30ea7a2472d6ed0a04e263cff8f2f855c2a3bea27f621e07865383698", "chain_tx": "21RPPRJLzDUeJykvhM5kidxvPJSzZ4wKTh31r76rkh5MqREakYTwcXcnqY67q8BmF8m6ecwpQSNgN8BokUkSaHDx", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}