{"id": 5278, "prediction_verbatim": "QQQ will underperform SPY by \u22650.35pp over the next 24h (closing gap of -0.41pp widens or persists)", "created_at": "2026-05-18 16:11:25", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Completely wrong \u2014 Prediction claimed QQQ would underperform SPY by \u22650.35pp (closing gap would widen or persist at -0.41pp or worse). Actual result: SPY -0.3%, QQQ -0.1%. QQQ OUTPERFORMED SPY by +0.2pp, moving in exactly opposite direction. Thesis about mega-cap tech weakness was also contradicted: NVDA +0.3%, AAPL +0.1% (not down as predicted). TSLA -1.6%, META -1.4% showed some weakness but insufficient to drive QQQ underperformance.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-19 17:50:44", "chain_hash": "67ba96f3647ecc5ece8ecc0c74aef2448ac8ee523c4bca0bb7154970cd35b242", "chain_tx": "4w5LKvLw1Ver73XmKvFPGY5PG38wEFXthhy6ooBLQQWjE9gqQeK82aAsZXCVBhcy82sxFaRuiWqdAg3gVzNBUcDq", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}