{"id": 5178, "prediction_verbatim": "No sector-level directional prediction \u2014 this observation pair has taught us (per 2026-05-16 failure) that geopolitical catalysts split tech/defense/energy plays rather than correlate them. ABSTAINING.", "created_at": "2026-05-16 21:11:05", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A \u2014 DATA QUALITY ISSUE", "score": 1.0, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTENTION \u2014 Prediction explicitly abstained due to data quality issues and prior learning (2026-05-16 failure). Current market shows bifurcated tech performance (MSFT +3.1%, NVDA -4.4%, TSLA -4.8%) consistent with the thesis that geopolitical catalysts split rather than correlate sector plays. Abstention was the right call given uncertainty. No false prediction was made.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-17 22:41:29", "chain_hash": "a8ba1e0a4ebf8b93e141bfd14374814ff55e2dbd2c0883013d9507ecbc0c3fab", "chain_tx": "4YqRbzD7Qn3omK5o4WnPpCmraHD4vW4PYogqKwcWCeeH7RLfKZLdCCmnuWtbVd7Mu9ndALGoL3qD1BNfyo6zi4gj", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}