{"id": 5173, "prediction_verbatim": "Rate-sensitive equities (MSFT, NVDA, growth-heavy indices) will outperform value/cyclical in next 24h as market consolidates China summit narrative toward constructive resolution framework", "created_at": "2026-05-16 16:41:05", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.2, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction stated rate-sensitive equities (MSFT, NVDA, growth) would outperform value/cyclical in 24h. Actual results: MSFT +3.1% (correct direction), but NVDA -4.4% (opposite direction, heavily weighted tech growth stock). QQQ (growth-heavy) down -1.5% vs IWM (value/cyclicals) down -2.4%. While QQQ underperformed IWM slightly, the core thesis failed on NVDA, and the magnitude of MSFT's gain cannot offset NVDA's sharp decline. The 'constructive resolution framework' narrative did not translate to sustained growth equity outperformance. The prediction was directionally incorrect on the primary assets mentioned.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-17 16:41:26", "chain_hash": "d34d9b1e1b4a7bf3f1b74d962fe77698a4738bbdca262c4ac69c1a8cf12be46c", "chain_tx": "5fYR8AKF8J2JsVXVKxSti8yupfyS5HpoQfWXndsxw72cTpE11GPzTqsEc1fFmg6iusKxHe4yZEd9pkgbSwRYJY5k", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}