{"id": 5087, "prediction_verbatim": "CNY weakens relative to USD over next 24h as market reprices duration and depth of US-China cooperation downward", "created_at": "2026-05-15 02:40:32", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 Prediction requires CNY/USD exchange rate data which is not provided in the current market state. The observation data includes Japanese news (NHK) mentioning US-China summit disappointment and Trump's Taiwan weapons sales comments, which are directionally consistent with the thesis, but without actual CNY price movement data, the prediction cannot be scored. The equity market weakness (broad -1% to -4% declines, NY Dow down 537pts per NHK) is consistent with negative US-China sentiment, but this does not confirm CNY weakening specifically.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-16 04:11:03", "chain_hash": "ee78136e7a9f6baed2ccb95f69b4fc4ea78364eb858e8662a44c168f5a77b0f3", "chain_tx": "4SeaaSebecEj32A1dWUe9nqhop95QgU6ku5BdWBPhSpTKF6YmxDSapWkD2ruUM7P8jZdZgcTPAiQmPMf1rXGYWEu", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}