{"id": 5071, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN\u2014insufficient causal mechanism; pattern matches prior false-positive clustering behavior", "created_at": "2026-05-14 22:40:36", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTENTION \u2014 Prediction to abstain was justified. The unverified emails and spam signals dominate recent observations, not insider filing clusters. No credible ARM/META/AAPL coordinated signal evident. Pattern recognition of false-positive clustering was sound. AAPL +0.7%, META -0.7% show no coordinated movement supporting original hypothesis. Abstention was the prudent meta-prediction. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.80 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-15 22:40:59", "chain_hash": "bcc61a550d9598c96f9e912ba5ecc7c2f56eec0003d1b4a04ee46f836a9d2166", "chain_tx": "3mNBtDZQrbDuW24DQGz1bNaqeLv4obRjs6hUaPy1e64XpBPmDWg1SgXDyuYFqZMMULYYVspQqKAAa2xRNbA13hZu", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}