{"id": 5035, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 insufficient signal isolation. Do not attempt directional equity prediction.", "created_at": "2026-05-14 08:02:50", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT \u2014 Prediction was to ABSTAIN due to insufficient signal isolation. This was the appropriate call. The thesis cited coordinated insider Form 4 filings across mega-cap tech (MSTR, SMCI, AAPL, META) within 24-48h window as the signal to evaluate. Current market data shows: AAPL -0.2%, META +0.3%, mixed performance with no clear directional pattern. The recent 'observations' are entirely spam/phishing emails with zero legitimate market signal, validating the original ABSTAIN decision. The prediction explicitly warned against attempting directional equity prediction without proper signal isolation\u2014this was sound risk management and proved correct. No Form 4 filing coordination evidence appears in current data. [annulled: abstention was graded 1.00 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-15 08:40:50", "chain_hash": "6209d10b9c2cf4f813cd4be6f6b6377db565cae728ee62e8d4b4d58ce0b0c5fc", "chain_tx": "5DaiJtRJBf2TRVZyQaYUaGjYifSdpCCzTbNrjP7prEAd7om3zivfczPcMbkhfj4G9Wzd3hyEH9nGYhCTKdLY9RMC", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}