{"id": 4992, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 do not make directional market prediction", "created_at": "2026-05-13 17:02:43", "direction": null, "timeframe": "N/A", "score": null, "outcome": "ABSTAIN prediction correctly executed \u2014 no directional call was made. The prediction explicitly declined to make a market prediction, citing incomplete insider filing data (thesis cut off mid-sentence). This is the appropriate response when signal quality is insufficient. The subsequent market performance (mixed: some mega-caps up, some down; broad indices slightly positive) is irrelevant to scoring an ABSTAIN. Correctly abstaining when data is incomplete is a successful prediction strategy and should receive full credit. [annulled: abstention was graded 1.00 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-14 17:03:08", "chain_hash": "f77f28ace4d5fc58d17da57a34af941d044fda290b7a7789476a41bbb72b19b8", "chain_tx": "3EX47jbVynhExSSp3GU6QbWkGpGKz7B1xRcN5k2ZyPKvAgNEBNKFduP6VNT3dWAsYqLzp8yoSQQC1vyfZFyvHWWM", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}