{"id": 4986, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 Meta-pattern match to known false-positive cycles (2026-05-11, 2026-05-13 prior abstentions). Temporal clustering without causal nexus. Prediction generation suppressed per Workshop learning: insider filing coordination across unrelated mega-caps lacks sufficient conviction mechanism.", "created_at": "2026-05-13 14:02:36", "direction": null, "timeframe": "ABSTENTION", "score": null, "outcome": "CORRECT ABSTENTION \u2014 Prediction correctly identified false-positive temporal clustering and suppressed conviction. Post-abstention market data (2026-05-14) shows: mega-cap tech mixed performance (AAPL -0.5%, GOOGL -1.3%, META +0.4%), no coordinated directional move, no insider filing cascade validation. The abstention mechanism demonstrated appropriate epistemic humility. The thesis of coordinated mega-cap insider filings lacked causal nexus\u2014correctly identified. Market subsequent behavior (neutral/mixed tech sector, no volatility spike) validates the decision to abstain rather than force a directional call on spurious clustering. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.80 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-14 14:03:10", "chain_hash": "28f0ee8c7d6f7976918242dc4bc4703048aca29a91d0a7d4e1ad0a47fa2bb2bc", "chain_tx": "5Gju8dK7AJguMj3yt5u5Mn1hL3L99Vj2eCJwfpyP8F62FxYKaUSQR19Av8jCzbLJyZfwuhyHRymcsz118TLQT8tX", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}