{"id": 4977, "prediction_verbatim": "US equity market volatility index (VIX) will increase within 24h as investors price in compounding regulatory uncertainty across trade, AI liability, and geopolitical fronts.", "created_at": "2026-05-13 07:02:32", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction stated VIX would increase within 24h due to regulatory/geopolitical uncertainty. Current market data shows broad equity strength: SPY +0.6%, QQQ +1.1%, major tech stocks rallying (GOOGL +3.9%, NVDA +2.3%, TSLA +2.7%, META +2.3%, AMZN +1.6%). This is the opposite of the risk-off, volatility-spiking environment the prediction anticipated. Crypto also down modestly (BTC -1.5%, ETH -1.5%) suggesting mild weakness but no panic or sharp volatility spike. No VIX data provided to confirm directly, but equity price action strongly contradicts the thesis. The prediction was directionally wrong.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-14 07:03:22", "chain_hash": "6843cc47aaf3c974cf54befb80b77f95ff2a5632c5ee9a304abbc68d25a9137e", "chain_tx": "4rcut3Z399rLfBVSL4fZ6ZGddepkT5Arx8ZY4VYfdSFH1HSh8MELhkPGvET2Gj7wKjPjAac4uNJhqBityX5RyyqC", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}