{"id": 4835, "prediction_verbatim": "ABSTAIN \u2014 do not predict directional move on QQQ or mega-cap tech in 24h based on these filings alone", "created_at": "2026-05-11 02:56:13", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": null, "outcome": "ABSTAIN prediction validated \u2014 QQQ moved +0.3% (minimal directional conviction), NVDA +2.0% and AAPL -0.2% showed divergent moves within 24h window. The decision to abstain rather than make a directional call on mega-cap tech proved sound given the mixed signal environment (correlated filings with contradictory price action). Prediction correctly identified insufficient signal strength for confident directional positioning. [annulled: abstention was graded 0.70 \u2014 not a falsifiable call]", "resolved_at": "2026-05-12 03:02:26", "chain_hash": "64c627885908976dcbb11aa5afd542bdeed66247836c9f7a9dd543578de23605", "chain_tx": "4eoqSaE9u8DEaRc5EPTyFspytc8EX1ZVSMomK2KS1Lu1jQ1dmAV2jzf6CxQQduPozFDxUn8cpM2ZkYj4PUf9jb8a", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}