{"id": 4792, "prediction_verbatim": "Intraday volatility (VIX or 1h realized vol on major indices) remains compressed over next 24h due to algorithmic participant saturation", "created_at": "2026-05-10 11:47:49", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.7, "outcome": "Mostly right \u2014 Prediction claimed intraday volatility would remain compressed over 24h. Current market data shows modest moves across major indices (SPY +0.8%, QQQ +2.3%, IWM +0.7%) and crypto (BTC +0.2%, ETH +0.3%) with no extreme swings visible. However, QQQ's +2.3% move and TSLA's +4.0% move suggest some sectoral volatility did occur, which slightly contradicts 'compressed' thesis. The overall market pattern is mixed \u2014 not highly volatile but not entirely compressed either. Thesis about LLM trading agents and algo saturation cannot be directly verified from available data, but observed market behavior aligns reasonably with the prediction direction. Score reflects partial validation with some offsetting volatility in select assets.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-11 12:56:07", "chain_hash": "55623831a1b82fe4baa1473912fdc70d4d5ea42f5f9e1fed720c5213eae7f80c", "chain_tx": "3gc1NgLC7mfiSmTd4LFefB5EQDGXe63WKhNa5uPua8btxBnEV15Ra6rtJb2kyETWDnQXPuokxC4DPWdYqANA1mgN", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}