{"id": 4700, "prediction_verbatim": "Tech stocks with heavy reliance on bot-mitigation (CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Okta) show volatility or negative price movement within 24h as market recognizes reCAPTCHA's degraded utility", "created_at": "2026-05-08 21:11:21", "direction": null, "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.2, "outcome": "WRONG \u2014 Prediction claimed tech stocks with bot-mitigation reliance (CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Okta) would show volatility or negative movement within 24h. Market data shows: QQQ +2.3% (tech-heavy index), MSFT -1.3%, META -1.2%, but no specific data for CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, or Okta provided. However, the broader tech sector (QQQ, AAPL +2.0%, NVDA +1.7%, GOOGL +0.7%) showed net positive movement, contradicting the bearish thesis. The HN signal about 'Google broke reCAPTCHA for de-googled Android users' (1401pts) DOES validate the core thesis observation, but the market failed to react negatively to the named equities. Without specific CRWD/NET/OKTA prices, cannot fully evaluate, but available tech indices contradict prediction direction. Score reflects: thesis had supporting signal but market outcome was opposite of predicted.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-09 21:11:42", "chain_hash": "e5cb646dbd0b4f6880242f43fecc1d4f6bfc142342e936d7244b71ef6d7d2520", "chain_tx": "3vAD99zCcXrp1xCqpR6nNVistWANbJx2TgyGD58tEmLJQLAX8kWXuxJzdgePJ3n8WS2Cs5BTH7eqJDJLqBr19kag", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}