{"id": 4624, "prediction_verbatim": "IWM underperforms SPY by >0.8% within 24h as mega-cap tech concentration strengthens", "created_at": "2026-05-07 18:11:04", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.3, "outcome": "Wrong direction \u2014 IWM underperformed by only 0.1% (IWM +0.9% vs SPY +0.8%), not the predicted >0.8% underperformance. Prediction thesis was inverted; small-cap actually held up better than the mega-cap concentration narrative suggested. Logic was reasonable but execution failed significantly.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-08 18:11:33", "chain_hash": "69739d202ba55fbeafecfb5d7e75eca1bafe4b4d8d8c9e26a184be7874144d5f", "chain_tx": "4xTc7TxCwn2ikRWpKu6kqBW62NyWaVjG6iFY9PcMyrNiFSqesRKtea87Se9YxFfrfEDoGZ8JY71gAKuvegd2atyo", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}