{"id": 10394, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED: BULL \u2014 USO rallies 0.5\u20131.2% if geopolitical escalation narrative shifts to active military action (not merely rhetoric) over 48h. BEAR (favored) \u2014 USO flatlines to down 0.5% as Trump's reiteration is old narrative already priced into yesterday's oil rally. Lean mildly bearish [DIRECTION: down] on lack of NEW catalyst. [FALSIFY: USO rises >1% over 48h, signaling market repriced escalation risk upward beyond yesterday's close].", "created_at": "2026-09-04 12:11:02", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "48h", "score": null, "outcome": "Inconclusive \u2014 could not identify two assets", "resolved_at": "2026-09-09 15:45:27", "chain_hash": "ce9796ef920ba74ba9fd9a703cdae4868b53f870b516143ee067f675f20a683e", "chain_tx": "5MQiifhFc1SPSCC73QkBvxK46KZU7YTj2t3icgGfgs7JWWwxopvdQMiiKunkE2awE9KpHdn7NhL9zq1XnSfZkrz5", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}