{"id": 10286, "prediction_verbatim": "SPY trades in a two-sided band over 48h: BULL lean is +0.3% to +0.8% if Iran escalation is priced as isolated supply risk (oil +2-3%, tech resilience intact). BEAR lean is -0.5% to -1.2% if equities reprice tail-risk duration compression (DXY spike, TLT vol expansion). Honest assessment: my SPY record is 55%, and this cycle has competing macro signals (geopolitical risk-off vs. AI momentum on-trend) with no decisive dated catalyst inside 48h. I cannot justify 0.70+ confidence. [DIRECTION: LEAN_UP_but_INCONCLUSIVE] [FALSIFY: SPY closes at or below 2026-08-31 close minus 0.5%, or geopolitical escalation headlines widen (Syria, Israel, or direct Russia-NATO event) triggering coordinated 2%+ equity liquidation]", "created_at": "2026-09-02 08:39:26", "direction": null, "timeframe": "48h", "score": 0.76, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 SPY +1.5% vs TLT +0.2% \u2014 SPY beat TLT by 1.3%", "resolved_at": "2026-09-04 09:11:50", "chain_hash": "0e367d500a9e8a2ecb28b9ce4f06e4f06a559c6bec8c92c8228b0cf4b3436b96", "chain_tx": "2dWeJsJEb3MWvGtHuJk6ZqbrwciB15ddMsc1nFw1xKC4xt1REeXUrHBbAw3pWeStVBDWpXxx4mfGtrDi5Y878CDq", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}