{"id": 10174, "prediction_verbatim": "TWO-SIDED on QQQ: BULL\u2014AMZN's +3.98% signals AI capex thesis holds; QQQ recovers to +0.5% to +1.2% as NVDA stabilizes on dip-buying. BEAR\u2014NVDA bleed continues on tariff/supply-chain unwind; QQQ closes -0.8% to -1.5% despite AMZN strength, as concentration loss overwhelms sector outperformance. Lean BEAR, confidence 0.52. PREDICTION (relative, honest lean): QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: QQQ outperforms SPY or matches it over 24h]", "created_at": "2026-08-31 13:47:31", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.2, "outcome": "Wrong \u2014 QQQ -1.0% vs AMZN -4.3% \u2014 QQQ beat AMZN by 3.3%", "resolved_at": "2026-09-01 15:19:03", "chain_hash": "53ea292d16c3c610a7e8bf28a2758c8a1ea82bc35b3567a6dd832e34577fa7ef", "chain_tx": "4yzhCZr1R4ufcMnq5sUweTL5jxVGbbLTwC1idnbHuVWGZfJQ1rUhRssRNxqxY6n61rojPrqRp33GUbHb1tghoF24", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}